Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
