Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
